Quiz Question - June 5

 As an epidemiology scientist, when studying a new disease, you gathered the following data:


This behavior was successfully approximated by you using the following fitted models:

\(i(t) = 0.6074 \cdot \exp\left(-\frac{(\ln(t - 0.3764) - 0.7049)^2}{2 \cdot (0.6481)^2}\right)\)

\(s(t) = 0.0112 + \frac{1 - 0.0112}{1 + e^{2.6634(t - 1.5440)}}\)

\(i(t=2.4) = 0.6073\)

\(s(t=2.4) = 0.1029\)


You also estimated the values for the SIR parameters:

\(\langle k \rangle\): 5.5

\(\mu\): 0.4


Assuming the disease can be modeled using the SIR epidemiological model

\(\frac{di}{dt} = \beta \langle k \rangle s i - \mu i\)

and the fitted models can be trusted around the peak region of the infection curve, what is the approximate transmission rate \(\beta\) of the new disease, rounded down to the first decimal?

A) 0.4

B) 0.5

C) 0.6

D) 0.7

E) None of the above.


Original idea by: Rafael Brusiquesi Martins.

Comentários

  1. Joao Meidanis8 de junho de 2026 às 09:25

    This one is filled with decimal numbers, complex formulas, derivatives,... I will need some more time to evaluate it.

    ResponderExcluir

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